Opinion: the Apple era came to an end after Microsoft

The browser edition Hackernoon Austin Frank wrote an article on why shouldn’t expect from Apple’s revolutionary innovations. In his opinion, the company has matured and now prefers not to risk and to maintain the current status. At the time, so did Microsoft. Vc leads the journalist.

7 September 2016 the company the Apple (or rather, her Twitter account) introduced the iPhone 7. The leak led to serious consequences, because the appearance of black color, protection from water and the lack of 3.5 mm Jack became the only noteworthy improvements iPhone. Nothing revolutionary company and not reported.

Of course, the iPhone 7 will probably be a great smartphone, but that’s not the point: almost every product that goes under the brand name Apple is of high quality. This is to be expected. The fact that Apple is no longer trying to get out of bounds. Tell me, would you have all night to stand in line for the new iPhone 7? Is it still cool? I don’t think so. Apple has passed the peak of his popularity. And this happened long before the presentation of the iPhone 7.

The peak of popularity of Apple

Signs that Apple has reached its ceiling, appeared for a long time. You can look at iPhone sales, which this year fell for the first time since 2007.

Another example of the maturity of the company is a project of its new headquarters. The building is the size of a Pentagon is called a Spaceship — a spaceship. It costs $5 billion and will be located in Cupertino, California. Here’s what he said on this occasion, the writer and journalist Charles Hugh Smith.

“When banks build their own luxurious head offices, it can be considered the last gift of their fortune.

This is a manifestation of pride, and with that act, the Bank kind of screams “We’re rich in every sense”. This Angers the gods of entrepreneurship.

For this reason, we need to closely look at Facebook and the new campus of the company in Menlo Park, as well as on Apple and its newly built office” — from the article writer Charles Hugh Smith

Probably, we might guess that the company is not the same when its last trump card in her sleeve was only a Apple watch — is only a pale copy of those revolutionary devices that it previously seemed.

These watches remain a convenient accessory for the iPhone, but you can do without them. In addition, they have not caused such a furore, which previously produced products of the company. That is why, in a futuristic new headquarters is located another Apple, not the one to which we are accustomed.

The era of discovery to Apple: 2001-2010

Eight years and three months, the company introduced three main products that changed the world.

On 23 October 2001, it announced the iPod, which has completely changed the industry of devices to play music. iPod accelerated the death of CDs and opened the digital age for music, photos and videos. Apple became the first manufacturer of an MP3 player. She was the first who made the MP3 player as it should.

On 9 January 2007 Steve jobs introduced the iPhone, which led to the flourishing of smartphones. The new device has drawn fans Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola and Palm. Apple became the first company that was forced to work the touchscreen. She was the first who invented the smartphone. She invented it anew.

27 Jan 2010 is already noticeably sick Steve jobs introduced the iPad, and suddenly all Americans wanted to buy a tablet. Despite the fact that the device has reached the peak of sales by 2013, and did not become as successful as the iPhone, many iPad was the first tablet, although similar gadgets have been on the market since 1989.

“Every time Steve jobs presented a new device, it was the rest of the industry: “You don’t know. Watch how it’s done”.

Apple tomorrow

Main question: how can we predict what will happen next? Earlier Apple innovations concerned already existing, but also immature markets. MP3 players, mobile phones, tablets had potential, they just need to bring to mind. What the company did.

“The company has never been the first. She was the best.”

Probably the next revolutionary device will be the Apple electric Car, which, according to rumors, currently being developed under the code name Project Titan and will be released by 2020. Is the company going to reinvent the car? If jobs was alive, I think he would have found this way. But I’m sure he initially wouldn’t exit the automobile market.

The car market in 2020, in contrast to the tablet market in 2010 mobile phones in 2007, and MP3 players in 2001, cannot be called immature. It’s crowded, and it is more than a hundred years. There are large, established players who took the sector in all price categories.

I’m not saying that in this industry it is impossible to release a revolutionary product — you can flip any industry. It seems to me that it is impossible to do Apple, which specializiruetsya on electronics. The chance that Apple will dominate the automotive market, as high as the chances that Mercedes-Benz will take over the smartphone market.

Although let’s try to develop the idea. Let’s imagine that Apple will be a direct competitor to Tesla and will produce a fully electric Autonomous smartphone on wheels. Why would she not just buy a Tesla? On her account holds about $231 billion, and Tesla is “only” $30 billion For a giant like Apple, it makes no sense to compete with a pygmy like Tesla.

If Apple creates a car, it would be a daring project in the spirit of the space race. When John Kennedy announced the start of the space race with the Soviet Union and planned before 1970, to send man into space, he knew that even if USA lose, it will still lead to the flourishing of technology and innovation. Apple really creates your own car not for the car.

Hardly iPhone will be the platform for the next impressive innovation from Apple. Modern smartphones have already reached the optimum screen resolution. As the owner of iPhone 6 Plus I have no idea how in hand can fit even wider device — then it will be some tablet.

Every year the smartphone camera is getting better, the screens are all stronger, and processors are more productive. But even the appearance of the device with a hard disk with a capacity of more than one terabyte, a rechargeable battery that will last for a week, and built-in projector will not change the industry the way Apple did it in 2007.

The company has made the device with a flip-T9-keyboard in a pocket-sized supercomputer. The most important improvements phone has occurred in the period from 2007 to 2012. Following a revolutionary technology is unlikely to be connected with smartphones or cars Apple Car.

Where does the new generation technology

In January 2017 will come seven years since the last truly revolutionary Apple product. I think next generation technology will not be associated with the company. Maybe we are simply waiting for Godot.

Here is the list of candidates for the title of next-generation technologies:

  • Good chances of a virtual reality goggles from Facebook-owned Oculus, or wearable virtual reality device like Google Glass.
  • Perhaps tomorrow’s technology will be associated with the Echo smart home assistant from Amazon. Despite the apparent failure of their previous product, the smartphone Fire Phone, Jeff Bezos takes risks and spends money on a new adventure.
  • Also, it can be personal flying drones that will change the urban transport system.
  • Or mobile implants.

Apple will be present in some of these areas, as in the foreseeable future will retain its status as the largest and best-known companies. But I can’t imagine that without Steve jobs the company was able to push the boundaries of these areas and demonstrate their full potential. She will be replaced by another player.

In a sense, IT company cease to be innovative. They lose heat, avoid global projects and prefer to maintain the existing status and not to develop.

“When you are hungry, you take the risk. When fed — avoiding risk”.

When main products are proven, and the market is saturated, Apple could just upgrade and continue playing the game with the quarterly reports. Buying other companies replaces innovation, a Apple is the new Microsoft.

What it means to be “the New Microsoft”

Microsoft was a General favorite among companies in the technology bubble of the 1990s. the Value of its shares over the decade has increased by 9500%, which occurred thanks to the massive spread of computers. By the early 2000s, the company bill gates was the largest in the world. She has left behind legends of the American economy — General Electric, Coca-Cola and IBM. In 2015, Apple was worth $700 billion. If you take the rate of inflation this year, Microsoft at the peak of your power cost $900 billion.

In January 2000 when bill gates stepped down, Microsoft stock was trading at $58. And it was the highest price that they cost $57: that is, the company nearly 17 years of running in place.

So when investors saw that Microsoft has reached the ceiling, they began to look for “the next Microsoft” — a company that may represent a new revolutionary product. Investors like emerging companies and not Mature.

“The next Microsoft” was Apple, which showed the colourful history of corporate success in the 21st century. From December 2000 till may 2015, its shares rose in price by 12000%. However, over the past four years — only 11.6%. Everything the company has achieved in 2012, hardly matters to investors.

“The example of Microsoft showed that all the rapid UPS sooner or later”.

However, to be the “new Microsoft” is not so bad. In the end, Microsoft remains one of the largest companies in the world, its market capitalization of $449 billion. the Problem is that Microsoft is: she doesn’t need to rush anywhere. A similar future awaits and Apple, which has reached maturity.

Like most young people, I can’t believe the day has come when the name Apple is no longer associated with technological breakthroughs and innovations. From the point of view of investors, Apple is a safe investment. It is in the list of the 30 largest companies in the U.S., and this means stability and low risk. Dividends will increase, which will give people a reason to buy its shares despite the slowdown. Exactly the same way passed Microsoft, IBM, and Coca-Cola and any other reputable Corporation.

Of course, people will continue to use Apple products and buy a new model. But it’s not a cult and not a symbol of high status. Steep were those who had a computer with Windows in 1996, and the iPhone in 2010. Now this did not surprise anyone.

The fact that Apple singled out among its competitors is the figure of Steve jobs. His death affected the company. Over time, the jobs era is becoming more and more dim, and less exceptional.

Jobs didn’t like the company fell apart after his death. As Thomas Edison and General Electric, Henry Ford and Ford. Most likely, Apple will exist for a long time, but without his talented and visionary leader — this is not the same company.

Jobs and gates gave us Apple and Microsoft. But Apple and Microsoft don’t give us a new Steve jobs and bill gates. Therefore, the future of IT-technology belongs to the young talents. It is they, and not Apple, will give us the next revolutionary technology.

Clifton Nichols

Clifton Nichols

Hi! I’m Clifton and I am a full-stack engineer with a passion for building performant and scalable applications that are beautiful and easy to use.

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