4 predictions about the future of the PC, which Steve jobs said in 1985. Was he right?
In 1985 Steve jobs as Chairman of Apple’s Board of Directors, gave an interview to Playboy magazine in which he made 4 predictions about the future of computers.
(Photo of Steve jobs from Playboy magazine)
A few months befor e the interview, Steve jobs introduced the first Macintosh computer. Let’s see what he predicted and what came true.
1. — We will use a computer at home, not only for business purposes.
In 1985, according to jobs, people bought the computer for business tasks and to help children with learning. Then he added:
“This will change: computers will become a necessity in every home”.
Of course, computers still help us to work and study, but their goal has become much wider. As evidence, we cite the gaming industry that earns tens of billions of dollars a year.
2. The computer will help people to communicate.
Jobs predicted that, in addition, computers also help people to talk and exchange messages.
“One of the main reasons why people will buy a computer for the home will be access to the public network for communication.”
In 1985 it was not yet popular services for Internet communication, but even the world wide web (World Wide Web).
3. — Computers will work with the mouse.
Most computer owners at the time without the mouse, which is not needed without a graphical interface. But Steve jobs was sure that the mouse is needed.
“If I need to show you the stains on the shirt, I won’t do it with words: spot 14 centimeters down from the collar and three centimeters to the left of the buttons. I’ll just point to it…
Many features, including cut and paste, much faster are performed with the mouse, so it is not only easier, but also more efficiently.”
4. On the market there will be competition, but the hardware will release a few monopolists.
In 1985, Steve jobs believed that the world will be only a few companies that produce computers, and many companies developing software.
“With regard to the supply of the computers themselves, the market will be only Apple and IBM. And I doubt that will survive a lot of companies the third and fourth tier, especially the sixth and seventh. Most new and innovative companies working in the field.”
Here, jobs was clearly wrong, Microsoft since the early 90s became a monopolist in the market for delivering Windows on every computer IBM. Even today, Windows is more than 80% of personal computers in the world.
At the same time, the market for hardware is still working, companies such as Samsung, Acer, Dell, HP and many others.
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